Step by step

i

Connect your wallet

The trade page asks for a Base mainnet wallet. You'll need a small amount of ETH for gas (typically < $0.10) plus whatever you want to stake.

ii

Wait for a matching window

The oracle opens a new window every few minutes per token/timeframe combination. The matching window is the period during which you can place a bet that will be paired with someone betting the opposite direction.

iii

Pick direction, timeframe, and amount

Choose UP or DOWN, pick a timeframe (5 / 15 / 30 / 60 min — longer pays more), and enter your stake in ETH. Your potential payout is shown live.

iv

Submit the bet

Your wallet asks you to sign one transaction calling createBet() on the contract. The contract holds your stake in escrow. You can see the live status in the Open / Pending / Live panel.

v

Match & wait

If a counterparty bets the opposite direction within the matching window, your bet moves to Pending. The oracle then waits the full timeframe for the settlement price.

vi

Settlement

At end-of-window the oracle reads the price, the contract pays out the winner with the timeframe multiplier, and the loser gets a partial refund (see table). Unmatched bets are refundable.

Multipliers & payouts

Worked example for a 0.10 ETH stake:

Timeframe	Multiplier	Winner net	Loser refund
5 min	1.10×	+0.1098 ETH	0.090 ETH
15 min	1.30×	+0.1287 ETH	0.075 ETH
30 min	1.60×	+0.1584 ETH	0.050 ETH
60 min	2.00×	+0.1980 ETH	0.000 ETH

Under the hood

Φ Three independent AI models

TimesFM · Google's 500M-parameter forecasting model. google/timesfm-2.0-500m

EML · NWO's in-house ensemble of statistical predictors (trend + volatility + mean-reversion).

Kronos · OHLCV-native transformer. NeoQuasar/Kronos-base

Their outputs combine into a single Φ consensus shown alongside individual signals on the trade page.

Φ Price feeds

BTC and ETH read from Coinbase Exchange's public API in real time (1-minute candles, 60-candle lookback).

STATE and other tokens use NWO's own oracle feed, refreshed by the operator scheduler.

The chart shows which feed is live via the badge in the top-left corner of the chart.

Φ On-chain contract

Single contract on Base mainnet at 0x16F2…a035.

Functions: createBet, cancelBet (during matching window), refundExpiredBet (if never matched).

Stakes are held in escrow until the oracle calls settle() at end-of-window.

Φ Operator scheduler

A backend service opens prediction windows on a fixed cadence (default 399s window, 300s matching) for each configured token / timeframe.

Status is publicly visible on the Operator page — uptime, errors, last/next tick, per-market state.

Risk This is a prediction market with real ETH stakes. You can lose your stake on losing bets (you'll get a partial refund per the table above — the refund decreases as timeframe gets longer). The contract is open-source and audited at the source-code level; before depositing, review the contract on Basescan and confirm you understand the timeframe multipliers.

Edge cases

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Unmatched bet at end of matching window — your full stake is refundable via refundExpiredBet(). No loss.

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Cancel during matching window — call cancelBet() from the bet detail modal. Full refund minus gas.

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Three models, one consensus — TimesFM, EML, and Kronos vote independently. The Φ consensus reflects their combined signal; a single model being wrong doesn't sway the consensus alone.

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Oracle downtime — if the backend can't post a settlement price, the contract has time-based fallback windows; users can withdraw via refundExpiredBet() after the deadline passes.